Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.412888 3.283163 4.513869 6.442789 9.510549e+00 1.443025e+01 2.344738e+01
2025-03-23 1.581817 2.470170 3.982332 6.954964 1.325572e+01 2.779804e+01 7.171834e+01
2025-03-30 1.104426 1.920802 3.536834 7.416071 1.829817e+01 5.604912e+01 2.844172e+02
2025-04-06 0.751018 1.412076 2.877128 7.003277 2.180816e+01 9.948983e+01 1.306667e+03
2025-04-13 0.521366 1.040419 2.297262 6.337224 2.442054e+01 1.704657e+02 1.010201e+04
2025-04-20 0.405698 0.862879 2.082881 6.651908 3.369034e+01 4.549161e+02 1.416542e+07
2025-04-27 0.336016 0.762061 2.019263 7.586972 5.394705e+01 2.163545e+03 NaN
2025-05-04 0.285149 0.686555 1.990811 8.842016 9.353816e+01 2.820782e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 0.237404 0.598669 1.865661 9.546180 1.482206e+02 4.331986e+06 NaN
2025-05-18 0.191455 0.497163 1.623483 9.143107 1.897947e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.153736 0.407203 1.373056 8.274858 2.146251e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.133329 0.365148 1.300902 8.841325 3.552775e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.115012 0.325127 1.221743 9.375873 6.281170e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.101632 0.297174 1.183440 10.429785 1.400233e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.089952 0.270956 1.136834 11.412739 3.447878e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.076929 0.235162 1.012853 10.879653 5.455478e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.065415 0.201670 0.881936 9.860421 6.923951e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.058821 0.185411 0.844140 10.519022 2.225451e+04 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.054532 0.176927 0.849644 12.300416 2.790850e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.051013 0.170417 0.864700 14.732986 1.941289e+09 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.046830 0.159642 0.842052 16.177843 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.041794 0.143578 0.768737 15.489313 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.036931 0.127080 0.682554 13.892967 NaN NaN NaN